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Emissions are no longer following the worst case scenario

theclimatebrink.substack.com · 1,373 words · saved by 1 readers

So where might we be headed instead?

If you step back in time to 2014, global CO2 emissions told a pretty frightening story. Emissions had rapidly increased at a rate of 3% per year in the 2000s, and there was not much sign yet of a slowdown in the early 2010s. Global emissions appeared to be following the worst case (RCP8.5) scenario. But over the last decade things have started to change. Comparison of global CO2 emissions (black line, both fossil and land use) to the RCP scenarios (thick colored lines) and older IPCC scenarios (thin lines). Figure courtesy of Glen Peters. Global CO2 emissions (both fossil and land use)…

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