Reflexivity — Part 1 - guy
rivalvoices.substack.com · 817 words · saved by 1 readers
Or, why is Elon Musk such a trash predictor?
Recently I saw this post going around Facebook (I’m old): It linked to a long webpage showcasing just how bad Elon’s predictions are (an 84% fail rate!!) and how you, dear reader, could do better. Which raises an obvious question: Elon Musk is one of the smartest, richest, most powerful men alive. Just how can he be so bad at predicting the future? Is he overconfident? Delusional? Playing 12D chess? To answer that we need to talk about the fun little concept: reflexivity. Most of my life was spent under the impression that the right way to approach the world was that of a scientist:…
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