The End-State Fallacy: Where Is AI Security Headed?
A look at where AI security is headed: what frontier models can already do, how fast offensive capability is scaling, why even a defense-dominant long run can have a sharply offense-dominant path there, and what defenders should do now.
The world right now AI can already find serious vulnerabilities that eluded human experts for years, write working exploits, and help run real intrusions. And yet the world still mostly works: planes fly, banks clear, the grid hums. Several bottlenecks still prevent AI from reliably closing the loop against important targets. To understand what comes next, we first need to understand what’s happening right now. What AI can already do Before asking where AI security is headed, we should begin with a more grounded question: what is happening now? AI systems are becoming highly capable at…
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