Probability theory, understood meta-rationally
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Ask: how and why to use it; and whether some other approach to uncertainty would be better.
It is a follow-on to “The parable of the pebbles,” an even simpler illustration of how rationality works in actuality. Most of the second half of Part One of the book, starting with “Probabilism,” explains how the rationalist explanation of probability is wrong. This section sketches the meta-rationalist alternative. It’s also a warm-up to the discussion of meta-rational statistical practice in Part Five. That is much more complicated! This is a section of the Meta-rationality book. It’s cross-posted from there. Rationality makes use of formal methods, but it is not just that. Part of…
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