Why are Murders Down in Baltimore? - Marginal REVOLUTION
In 2015 I wrote Baltimore Arrests are Down and Crime is Way Up and, as I predicted, Baltimore tipped into an high crime equilibrium. After the Freddie Gray riots, arrests declined and crime shot up but crime stayed high even after arrests rebounded. In my view, the surge fed on itself: higher crime strained police […]
In 2015 I wrote Baltimore Arrests are Down and Crime is Way Up and, as I predicted, Baltimore tipped into an high crime equilibrium. After the Freddie Gray riots, arrests declined and crime shot up but crime stayed high even after arrests rebounded. In my view, the surge fed on itself: higher crime strained police resources, and that strain—in and of itself—reduced the probability of punishment, sustaining the high-crime equilibrium, as in my crime wave paper. Yet, beginning around 2022 crime in Baltimore—most especially murders—began to fall. In April, Baltimore had four homicides, the…
saved by
related reading
- Proposed Biological Explanations For Historical Trends In Crimeslatestarcodex.com
- Crime and Punishment #1thezvi.substack.com
- US homicide clearance rate plunges to all-time lownypost.com
- Vital City | The Golden Age of Crime Reduction Is Nowvitalcitynyc.org
- Vital City | What We're Readingvitalcitynyc.org
- Crime in the U.S.: Key questions answered | Pew Research Centerpewresearch.org
- As Baltimore moves to enforce youth curfew, policies elsewhere raise questions - The Bannerthebaltimorebanner.com
- The illegally carried handguns are the problemslowboring.com
- Escalation Theory: Compliance, Violence, and Overachievement In Societyradicalcontributions.substack.com
- Crime and Self-Promotionpaulkrugman.substack.com
- People "Feel Unsafe" Because Visible Poverty Is Everywherethecolumn.substack.com
- What Happened To SF Homelessness?substack.com