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AI governance needs a theory of victory | Convergence Analysis

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The central goal of AI governance should be achieving existential security: a state in which existential risk from AI is negligible either indefinitely or for long enough that humanity can carefully plan its future. We can call such a state an AI governance endgame. A positive framing for AI governance (that is, achieving a certain endgame) can provide greater strategic clarity and coherence than a negative framing (or, avoiding certain outcomes). A theory of victory for AI governance combines an endgame with a plausible and prescriptive strategy to achieve it. It should also be robust across a range of future scenarios, given uncertainty about key strategic parameters. Nuclear risk provides a relevant case study. Shortly after the development of nuclear weapons, scientists, policymakers, and public figures proposed various theories of victory for nuclear risk, some of which are striking in their similarity to theories of victory for AI risk. Those considered included an international

AI governance needs a theory of victory | Convergence Analysis Programs About Publications Donate Get Updates Programs Scenario Research Governance Research AI Awareness Fellowships About About Us Our Team How We Work Theory of Change Donate Get Updates Publications Scenario Research Scenario Planning AI governance needs a theory of victory Authors Corin Katzke , Justin Bullock Published Jun 21, 2024 Publications Scenario Research Scenario Planning AI governance needs a theory of victory Authors Corin Katzke , Justin Bullock Published Jun 21, 2024 Discussion Posts AI governance needs a theory

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