the art of betting early: why social proof is a trap

every big win, financial, personal, or otherwise, comes from seeing value before it’s obvious. but most people can’t do that. they want what other people want. they crave validation, not truth. • investors ask, “who else is in?” before committing. • hiring managers won’t look at a candidate unless they have a fancy logo on their resume. • nobody cares about an artist until their paintings sell for millions. • people only start treating you differently after you succeed. social proof isn’t just a factor in decision-making; for most people, it is the decision-making. this is why almost nobody gets outsized returns—because by the time something is widely desirable, it’s already expensive. if you want extraordinary outcomes, you have to do something uncomfortable: make bets when there’s no consensus. being early is everything take the biggest returns in venture capital. • peter thiel invested $500k in facebook when it was just a scrappy college project. in 2004, most vcs didn’t take social

every big win, financial, personal, or otherwise, comes from seeing value before it’s obvious. but most people can’t do that. they want what other people want. they crave validation, not truth. • investors ask, “who else is in?” before committing. • hiring managers won’t look at a candidate unless they have a fancy logo on their resume. • nobody cares about an artist until their paintings sell for millions. • people only start treating you differently after you succeed. social proof isn’t just a factor in decision-making; for most people, it is the decision-making. this is why almost nobody ge