✳flâneur — a map of the web's best reading

Will We See AI with Recursive Self Improvement in 2028? Likely Not.

substack.com · 1,717 words · saved by 1 readers

Jack Clark of Anthropic recently made a startling claim: “there’s a likely chance (60%+) that no-human-involved AI R&D - an AI system powerful enough that it could plausibly autonomously build its own successor - happens by the end of 2028.”

Will We See AI with Recursive Self Improvement in 2028? Likely Not. Arun Rao May 06, 2026 74 5 16 Share Jack Clark of Anthropic recently made a startling claim : “there’s a likely chance (60%+) that no-human-involved AI R&D - an AI system powerful enough that it could plausibly autonomously build its own successor - happens by the end of 2028.” I think human-free recursive, e2e self-improvement is improbable in that short a timeframe (my estimate is <10%) , though I do think it’s possible over a decade through 2036 (where we will learn more each year about what key bottlenecks are, where human

Explore this link on the map →

saved by

related reading