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Is Less Really More? Comparing the Climate and Productivity Impacts of a Shrinking Population | NBER

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A smaller human population would emit less carbon, other things equal, but how large is the effect? Here we test the widely-shared view that an important benefit of the ongoing, global decline in fertility will be reductions in long-run temperatures. We contrast a baseline of global depopulation (the most likely future) with a counterfactual in which the world population continues to grow for two more centuries. Although the two population paths differ by billions of people in 2200, we find that the implied temperatures would differ by less than one tenth of a degree C—far too small to impact climate goals. Timing drives the result. Depopulation is coming within the 21st century, but not for decades. Fertility shifts take generations to meaningfully change population size, by which time per capita emissions are projected to have significantly declined, even under pessimistic policy assumptions. Meanwhile, a smaller population slows the non-rival innovation that powers improvements in l

Is Less Really More? Comparing the Climate and Productivity Impacts of a Shrinking Population | NBER Skip to main content Is Less Really More? Comparing the Climate and Productivity Impacts of a Shrinking Population Mark Budolfson , Michael Geruso , Kevin J. Kuruc , Dean Spears & Sangita Vyas Share X LinkedIn Facebook Bluesky Threads Email Link Working Paper 33932 DOI 10.3386/w33932 Issue Date June 2025 Revision Date December 2025 We test the widely shared view that an important benefit of the ongoing, global decline in fertility and population growth will be reductions in long-run temperature

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