Gradual Disempowerment
This paper has argued that even incremental AI development could lead to an existential catastrophe through the gradual erosion of human influence over key societal systems, generalizing the argument from previous work studying how AI progress may influence these systems in isolation [1, 2]. Unlike scenarios involving sudden technological discontinuities or overtly hostile AI systems, the risk we describe could emerge from the natural evolution of current trends and incentives. The displacement of human cognition and labor across multiple domains could weaken both explicit control mechanisms and the implicit alignment that emerges from human participation. Our analysis suggests three particularly concerning features of this scenario: A distinctive feature of this challenge is that it may subvert our traditional mechanisms for course-correction, and cause types of harm we cannot easily conceptualize or even recognize in advance, potentially leaving us in a position from which it is impo
Conclusion This paper has argued that even incremental AI development could lead to an existential catastrophe through the gradual erosion of human influence over key societal systems, generalizing the argument from previous work studying how AI progress may influence these systems in isolation [ 0 , 0 ] . Unlike scenarios involving sudden technological discontinuities or overtly hostile AI systems, the risk we describe could emerge from the natural evolution of current trends and incentives. The displacement of human cognition and labor across multiple domains could weaken both explicit contr
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