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Three scenarios for the emergence of new religious doctrine - Marginal REVOLUTION

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This was a discussion topic at the recent and excellent Civic Future meet-up outside of London. These were my nominations of how new religious ideas might be most likely to emergen in the near future: 1. We don’t have good models for the evolution of religious thought. So bet on the numbers, and figure that Africa will produce new variants of Christianity and Islam. Furthermore, many African regions have not been Christian or Muslim for very long, not by historical standards. That might boost the chances of innovation, since to them it is not a very fixed doctrine. 2. A Constantine for China. If China evolves in a more capitalist direction, leadership might decide that some additional ideologies are needed. Christianity does seem to attract a reasonable number of adherents in China when it is allowed to grow. Constantine formalized Christianity for the Roman Empire, and perhaps a future Chinese leader will create a “Christianity with Chinese characteristics” to make rule easier.

This was a discussion topic at the recent and excellent Civic Future meet-up outside of London. These were my nominations of how new religious ideas might be most likely to emergen in the near future: 1. We don’t have good models for the evolution of religious thought. So bet on the numbers, and figure that Africa will produce new variants of Christianity and Islam. Furthermore, many African regions have not been Christian or Muslim for very long, not by historical standards. That might boost the chances of innovation, since to them it is not a very fixed doctrine. 2. A Constantine for C

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