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October 2022 Newsletter: Energy vs Sovereign Bond Markets

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This newsletter issue focuses on recent problems with developed country sovereign bond markets and how energy supply constraints pose an ongoing problem for them. During much of 2019 and 2020, large portions of the developed country bond market were outright negative in nominal terms. Rather than getting paid interest, investors had to pay for the privilege of lending to governments and even some corporations, mainly across Europe. At its peak, the amount of negative-yielding bonds reached over $18 trillion: Chart Source: Bloomberg In July 2019, I wrote an article focusing on the high probability that we were in a bond bubble. I opened the article by highlighting that even though I had some concerns about stocks, I was even more concerned about bonds: I read thousands of emails from my readers, and one of the key themes I see is that people are concerned about the next stock market crash, and perhaps rightly so. By many measures we have high stock valuations in the United States after

This newsletter issue focuses on recent problems with developed country sovereign bond markets and how energy supply constraints pose an ongoing problem for them. During much of 2019 and 2020, large portions of the developed country bond market were outright negative in nominal terms. Rather than getting paid interest, investors had to pay for the privilege of lending to governments and even some corporations, mainly across Europe. At its peak, the amount of negative-yielding bonds reached over $18 trillion: Chart Source: Bloomberg In July 2019, I wrote an article focusing on the high probabil

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