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Are There Examples of Overhang for Other Technologies?

blog.aiimpacts.org · 4,190 words · saved by 1 readers

One major concern about pausing AI development, from a purely safety perspective, is the possibility of hardware overhang.1 Here is the concern as I understand it: Suppose a policy were put in place tomorrow that banned all progress in AI capabilities anywhere in the world for the next five years.2 Afterwards, the ban would be completely lifted. Hardware would continue to progress during this AI pause. Immediately after the pause ended, it would be possible to train new AI systems using significantly more compute than was previously possible, taking advantage of the improved hardware. There would be a period of extremely rapid growth, or perhaps a discontinuity,3 until the capabilities returned to their previous trend. Figure 1 shows a sketch of what we might expect progress to look like. Figure 1: What AI progress might look like if there were a temporary pause in capabilities progress. The ‘overhang’ is the difference between what AI capabilities currently are as a result of the paus

Are There Examples of Overhang for Other Technologies? Jeffrey Heninger Dec 13, 2023 6 3 Share TL;DR: No. What Do I Mean By ‘Overhang’? Hardware Overhang for AI One major concern about pausing AI development, from a purely safety perspective, is the possibility of hardware overhang. 1 Here is the concern as I understand it: Suppose a policy were put in place tomorrow that banned all progress in AI capabilities anywhere in the world for the next five years. 2 Afterwards, the ban would be completely lifted. Hardware would continue to progress during this AI pause. Immediately after the pause end

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