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Three reasons to expect long AI timelines - LessWrong

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A lot of people I trust put relatively high confidence on near term AI timelines. For example, most people inthe Lesswrong AI timelines threadfrom last year had shorter timelines thanme, though it may have been because I interpreted the question a bit differently than most everyone else. In this post, I'll cover three big reasons to expect long AI timelines, which I take to be the thesis that transformative AI-related phenomena won't happen for at least another 50 years (currently >2071). Roughly speaking, the three reasons are 1. Technological deployment lag: Most technologies take decades between when they're first developed and when they become widely impactful. 2. Overestimating the generality of AI technology: Many AI scientists in the 1950s and 1960s incorrectly expected that cracking computer chess would automatically crack other tasks as well. I suspect a similar phenomenon is happening in people's minds today when they extrapolate current AI. 3. Regulation will slow things down: Lots of big technologies have been slowed down by regulation. Nuclear energy is an obvious example of a technology whose adoption has been hampered by regulation, but other cases exist too. TECHNOLOGICAL DEPLOYMENT LAG From at least two perspectives, it makes sense to care more about when a technology is impactful, rather than when it first gets developed in a lab. The first perspective is the perspective of an ordinary person. Ordinary people hardly get affected by isolated technological achievements. Itmighthelp their stock portfolios, if the resulting development triggers investors to become much more optimistic about future profits in those industries. But other than that, the ordinary person will care far more about when they can actually see the results of a technology compared to when it is first developed. The second perspective is the perspective of a serious technological forecaster. These people care a lot about timing because theorderof te

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