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story-based decision-making — LessWrong

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me: Here's the main plan. Now, we think the odds are good, but the most likely failure point is here. If necessary, we have an alternative plan for that part, which goes as follows... them: (visible disgust) I was so confused! Aren't contingency plans good to have? Sure, investors want to see confidence, but what they really want is confidence in the overall vision. They expect some things to go wrong along the way, maybe even requiring "pivoting" to a different product. Well, I've gotten more experience since then, and thought about things more, and I think I understand the thought process now. Imagine you're watching Star Wars, and the rebels are getting ready to destroy the Death Star. The guy planning the operation says: OK, the primary plan is a torpedo to this exhaust port. You've all been briefed on it. But there are some key risks: the shielding could've been upgraded, it might be too heavily defended, and torpedo targeting could fail. As such, we've designated secondary target

x story-based decision-making — LessWrong Social & Cultural Dynamics Startups Frontpage 90 story-based decision-making by [anonymous] 7th Feb 2024 4 min read 11 90 A few times, I've talked to an executive manager or early-stage investor, and this happened: me: Here's the main plan. Now, we think the odds are good, but the most likely failure point is here . If necessary, we have an alternative plan for that part, which goes as follows... them: (visible disgust) I was so confused! Aren't contingency plans good to have? Sure, investors want to see confidence, but what they really want is confide

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