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Double Illusion of Transparency — LessWrong

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My first true foray into Bayes For Everyone was writing An Intuitive Explanation of Bayesian Reasoning, still one of my most popular works. This is the Intuitive Explanation's origin story. In December of 2002, I'd been sermonizing in a habitual IRC channels about what seemed to me like a very straightforward idea: How words, like all other useful forms of thought, are secretly a disguised form of Bayesian inference. I thought I was explaining clearly, and yet there was one fellow, it seemed, who didn't get it. This worried me, because this was someone who'd been very enthusiastic about my Bayesian sermons up to that point. He'd gone around telling people that Bayes was "the secret of the universe", a phrase I'd been known to use. So I went into a private IRC conversation to clear up the sticking point. And he still didn't get it. I took a step back and explained the immediate prerequisites, which I had thought would be obvious - He didn't understand my explanation of the prerequi

x Double Illusion of Transparency — LessWrong Illusion of Transparency Inferential Distance Bayes' Theorem Frontpage 129 Double Illusion of Transparency by Eliezer Yudkowsky 24th Oct 2007 4 min read 33 129 Followup to: Explainers Shoot High , Illusion of Transparency My first true foray into Bayes For Everyone was writing An Intuitive Explanation of Bayesian Reasoning , still one of my most popular works. This is the Intuitive Explanation's origin story. In December of 2002, I'd been sermonizing in a habitual IRC channels about what seemed to me like a very straightforward idea: How words, lik

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