✳flâneur — a map of the web's best reading

Proposal: LLMs to trade prediction markets

manifoldmarkets.notion.site · 249 words · saved by 1 readers

Manifund Home / Inbox DB / Proposal: LLMs to trade prediction markets Made with Proposal: LLMs to trade prediction markets Type idea Assigned to Empty Created by Jesse Richardson Created time March 13, 2025 10:54 AM Priority P1 Status Not started The Basic Idea Set up automated LLM trader/s through the OpenAI API + Polymarket API Track & evaluate performance Why? It could make money right now, perhaps as a component of a prediction market trading fund A site like Polymarket has a sufficient number of markets and is sufficiently in violation of EMH that a major bottleneck is just the time taken to examine all the markets on a basic level, in addition to the level of critical reasoning needed to apply to each market. LLMs could probably help with this. Even if not profitable right now, it seems likely that AI will be able to be profitable on somewhere like Polymarket within ~2 years, and there is value in being first. Similarly, it seems likely that we will have an AI that can consistent

Notion’s local storage may be damaged. See (?) > Help & documentation > Reset Notion. Contact support if that doesn’t fix the issue. Your Firefox profile may be damaged. Visit https://firefox-storage-test.glitch.me/ to diagnose. Contact support if that doesn’t fix the issue. Your Chrome profile may be damaged. If you changed any chrome://flags then please reset them, then restart your browser. If issues persist, try making a new Chrome user. Contact support if that doesn’t fix the issue. Your Chrome profile may be damaged. For a more consistent experience download the Notion desktop app: https

Explore this link on the map →

related reading