Is the “Conviction” Game in VC Is BS? - by Guillermo Flor
Hey everyone, this week Peter Walker broke the internet with a Linkedin post about how Spread & Pray might be a better investing strategies for VC than conviction. I thought this was super interesting and couldn’t avoid to dig a bit deeper and share it with you. Let’s get it! If you’d like to sponsor the Product Market Fit, email me at g@guillermoflor.com PS: I’m starting something new called Alfred: the first fully personalized newsletter. Imagine it’s me just writing to you. Check it out here Venture capitalists love to tout their “high conviction” bets—selecting a few startups they just know will be winners—and deride broad portfolio strategies with the dismissive label “spray and pray.” The logic goes something like this: a great VC doesn’t need to back 100 companies. They just need to know which 20 matter, double down on the winners, and help them scale. Spray and pray? That’s for amateurs who don’t know what they’re doing. Right? But recent data from Carta flips this myth on its
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