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A regime-change power-vacuum conjecture about group belief

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Conjecture: when there is regime change, the default outcome is for a faction to take over——whichever faction is best prepared to seize power by force. One example: The Iranian Revolution of 1978-1979. In the years leading up to the revolution, there was turmoil and broad hostility towards the Shah, across many sectors of the population. These hostilities ultimately combined in an escalation of protest, crack-down, more protest from more sectors (protests, worker strikes). Finally, the popular support for Khomeini as the flag-bearer of the broad-based revolution was enough to get the armed forces to defect, ending the Shah's rule. From the Britannica article on the aftermath: On April 1, following overwhelming support in a national referendum, Khomeini declared Iran an Islamic republic. Elements within the clergy promptly moved to exclude their former left-wing, nationalist, and intellectual allies from any positions of power in the new regime, and a return to conservative social value

A regime-change power-vacuum conjecture about group belief June 24, 2025 1. Regime change Conjecture: when there is regime change, the default outcome is for a faction to take over——whichever faction is best prepared to seize power by force. One example: The Iranian Revolution of 1978-1979. In the years leading up to the revolution, there was turmoil and broad hostility towards the Shah, across many sectors of the population. These hostilities ultimately combined in an escalation of protest, crack-down, more protest from more sectors (protests, worker strikes). Finally, the popular

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