Notes on forecasting strategy - by Sam Atis - Samstack

[Note: You need to be familiar with forecasting for this to be of any interest. I may have made some mistakes given my mediocre mathematical ability and because I wrote this very quickly.] Imagine that there are a few people forecasting on a question, and that the question has three possible ways of resolving. To make things vivid, the question could be “Who will win the NYC Mayoral Election?”. Option A is “Zohran Mamdani”, Option B is “Andrew Cuomo”, and Option C is “Curtis Sliwa (or any other candidate)”. We look at the distribution of forecasts, and there are currently three people forecasting on the question: one has the username ‘dontmesswiththeZohan97’, and gives a 100% probability that Zohran will win the election. The second is an avid Cuomo fan who puts 100% on Cuomo. The third, who just hates the other two candidates, does the same for Mr. Sliwa (or any other candidate). Thanks for reading Samstack! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. Imagine looking

[Note: You need to be familiar with forecasting for this to be of any interest. I may have made some mistakes given my mediocre mathematical ability and because I wrote this very quickly.] Imagine that there are a few people forecasting on a question, and that the question has three possible ways of resolving. To make things vivid, the question could be “Who will win the NYC Mayoral Election?”. Option A is “Zohran Mamdani”, Option B is “Andrew Cuomo”, and Option C is “Curtis Sliwa (or any other candidate)”. We look at the distribution of forecasts, and there are currently three people forecast