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Cyborg Periods: There will be multiple AI transitions — LessWrong

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It can be useful to zoom out and talk about very compressed concepts like ‘AI progress’ or ‘AI transition’ or ‘AGI timelines’. But from the perspective of most AI strategy questions, it’s useful to be more specific. Looking at all of human history, it might make sense to think of ourselves as at the cusp of an AI transition, when AI systems overtake humans as the most powerful actors. But for practical and forward-looking purposes, it seems quite likely there will actually be multiple different AI transitions: Stage [>> = more powerful than] Human period: Humans >> AIs Cyborg period: Human+AI teams >> humans Human+AI teams >> AIs AI period: AIs >> humans (AIs ~ human+AI teams) Some domains might never enter an AI period. It’s also possible that in some domains the cyborg period will be very brief, or that there will be a jump straight to the AI period. But: This means that for each domain, there are potentially two transitions: one from the human period into the cyborg period, and one

x Cyborg Periods: There will be multiple AI transitions — LessWrong AI Governance AI Takeoff AI-Assisted Alignment AI Frontpage 116 Cyborg Periods: There will be multiple AI transitions by Jan_Kulveit , rosehadshar 22nd Feb 2023 AI Alignment Forum 7 min read 9 116 Ω 38 It can be useful to zoom out and talk about very compressed concepts like ‘AI progress’ or ‘AI transition’ or ‘AGI timelines’. But from the perspective of most AI strategy questions, it’s useful to be more specific. Looking at all of human history, it might make sense to think of ourselves as at the cusp of an AI transition, whe

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