My Moldbug Debate - by Robin Hanson - Overcoming Bias

Mencius Moldbug and I did debate futarchy Saturday. I’m not sure when the vid will be posted; here’s audio (start at 1:30). Moldbug also has a follow-on 3700 word post; his main complaint is manipulator payola: Suppose player P stands to make $X from decision D. In our chess example, he might have a side bet, paying $X, that White will open with P-KB4. Therefore, the question is: what will be his expected loss, $Y, from buying enough P-KB4 bets that White opens with P-KB4? If X is greater than Y, manipulating the market (ie, moving it intentionally) is profitable. … Professor Hanson … addresses this problem in three ways. First, he constructs a model in which Y is infinite and X is finite. … Second, he does sociological experiments with undergraduates. He sets up these markets such that Y is greater than X. … Third, he finds actual markets in which actual manipulations fail. … None of this goes even a millimeter toward proving what needs to be proved – namely, that in all markets

Mencius Moldbug and I did debate futarchy Saturday. I’m not sure when the vid will be posted; here’s audio (start at 1:30). Moldbug also has a follow-on 3700 word post; his main complaint is manipulator payola: Suppose player P stands to make $X from decision D. In our chess example, he might have a side bet, paying $X, that White will open with P-KB4. Therefore, the question is: what will be his expected loss, $Y, from buying enough P-KB4 bets that White opens with P-KB4? If X is greater than Y, manipulating the market (ie, moving it intentionally) is profitable. … Professor Hanson … addresse