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We need well-capitalized prediction markets for AI impacts

empiricrafting.substack.com · 2,288 words · saved by 1 readers

And how to create them

We need well-capitalized prediction markets for AI impacts And how to create them Andrey Fradkin , Brian Jabarian , and Andrew Koh May 19, 2026 14 3 7 Share As our readers have surely noticed, there’s enormous disagreement about the likely economic effects of AI. Some AI forecasters, especially those emphasizing recursive self-improvement, expect AI capabilities to soon surpass that of most human workers. As a result, they expect large-scale labor market displacement, beginning with white-collar work and spreading to all of labor in the long run. The AI 2027 scenario lays out a year-by-year pa

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