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Preparing for Launch | IFP

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This essay is the foreword to The Launch Sequence, a collection of concrete, ambitious ideas to accelerate AI for science and security. If we zoom out from the debate about the specific capabilities of each new AI model, the historical shape of AI progress is clear: AI capabilities are compounding toward something transformative. Even while today’s agents still fumble long chains of actions, their human-indexed performance across coding, math, tool use, and scientific analysis has been rising at an exponential rate. If more domains continue to fall to these trends, the next decade will see AI reshape the economy, science, and the foundations of national power. But technological trajectories aren’t fate. AI doesn’t automatically solve the most important problems first, and it won’t neutralize the new risks it creates by default. Many proposals targeted at “maximizing AI’s benefits” while “minimizing its risks” are poorly targeted or sorely lacking in ambition. In this essay, we lay out

Download PDF Content Why shape AI progress? 1. The benefits of AI progress may not come quickly enough 2. AI progress may bring risks that industry is poorly incentivized to solve Mobilizing the R&D lab of the world How should we think about shaping AI progress? Four principles for shaping AI progress 1. We should leverage the “jagged frontier” of AI progress 2. We shouldn’t neglect the costs of stalled progress 3. To realize the benefits of AI, we should redesign how science works 4. We should adapt to uncertainty while working to reduce it The Launch Sequence Acknowledgemen

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