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Fab Whack-A-Mole: Chinese Companies are Evading U.S. Sanctions

newsletter.semianalysis.com · 4,619 words · saved by 1 readers

AI competitiveness is a key national security concern. When “expert-level science and engineering” or even AGI are possible outcomes, it is crucial that the U.S. maintains or extends its lead in these areas. Consider the opposite: what if China were to achieve AGI capability six months or a year before the U.S.? There are a few major gating factors to building powerful AI systems, and the only one the U.S. can stop from proliferation is compute. Currently the largest AI training clusters are ~100,000 GPUs. Over the next few years the growth of the largest AI clusters is primarily capped by U.S. regulatory environment and industrial capacity limitations. As such, all major US AI firms are turning to the unproven method of scaling AI by training models across datacenters around the nation. China on the other hand has no issues securing power infrastructure or datacenter capacity. There are numerous multi-gigawatt substations that can be converted from aluminum mills to datacenters in les

Fab Whack-A-Mole: Chinese Companies are Evading U.S. Sanctions Huawei Fab Network, WFE Vendors Cry Wolf, Framework for Future Controls Dylan Patel , Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros , and Sravan Kundojjala Oct 28, 2024 ∙ Paid 3 Share Huawei Fab Network, WFE Vendors Cry Wolf, Framework for Future Controls AI competitiveness is a key national security concern. When “ expert-level science and engineering ” or even AGI are possible outcomes, it is crucial that the U.S. maintains or extends its lead in these areas. Consider the opposite: what if China were to achieve AGI capability six months or a year be

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