Where Are We In The Cycle? - by 0xsmac

Sure it matters for some things, but there are too many examples of humans acting irrationally (especially when it comes to money), or not understanding the cognitive biases they experience. More specifically, I mean this in the context of smaller crowds full of people predisposed to overconfidence/irrationality. Financial market participants, for example. Just after the FTX collapse in November 2022 — and with the QQQ’s ~30% off the ATHs — I was curious what people thought about the potential for a proverbial “soft landing”. Needless to say, only 1 in 5 was fairly confident we would get one1. A year later, with BTC having already doubled (to ~$35k) and in an undeniable uptrend, I was once again curious how people were feeling. Generally I use polls like this to gauge positioning. It’s only one data point but I find most respond with what they want to happen — especially on twitter. So it wasn’t super surprising to see only half the crowd thought a ~30% move higher was more likely than

Sure it matters for some things, but there are too many examples of humans acting irrationally (especially when it comes to money), or not understanding the cognitive biases they experience. More specifically, I mean this in the context of smaller crowds full of people predisposed to overconfidence/irrationality. Financial market participants, for example. Just after the FTX collapse in November 2022 — and with the QQQ’s ~30% off the ATHs — I was curious what people thought about the potential for a proverbial “soft landing”. Needless to say, only 1 in 5 was fairly confident we would get one1.