Mostly Beta - by Andrew Courtney - Whirligig Bear

I had been reading some “stop-loss” stuff on X and wrote nearly a whole post on that, then decided to see if Kris at Moontower had written on it. He’s got a whole post: “stop with the stop-loss debate.” Mostly the same points I had! I feel targeted. Something personal instead. I left my trading seat after 15 years in 2023 to pursue the FIRE / stay at home dad dream. Even though I’ve been out of the game for a bit, I follow the public side of the trading world pretty closely, and hear the advice given to younger traders trying to enter it. The shift in the industry since I started is profound. This likely rings true for many of my cohort but I’d guess the chances someone like me could get an entry level job in the industry today is sub 50%. A concept I keep coming back to, that particularly applies to high-agency individuals, is how much outlier results are driven by luck. Our lives are mostly beta, and while we can independently produce alpha in some spots, we’re much more interdepende

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• Eli Qian