Scientists Say This Is the Probability AI Will Drive Humans Extinct

According to a new survey that took into account the input from 2,778 researchers, there's a not insignificant risk of artificial intelligence triggering human extinction. Just over half of the AI researchers surveyed say there's a five percent chance of humans will be driven to extinction, among other "extremely bad outcomes." Ten percent of respondents, for instance, said it's possible machines could outperform humans in "every possible task" by 2027. Half of the respondents said that'd be possible by 2047. But it's not all doom and gloom: 68.3 percent of respondents said that "good outcomes from superhuman AI" are more likely than bad ones. Most of all, the survey highlights the sheer amount of disagreement and uncertainty among researchers, with broad disagreement about whether progress should be sped up or slowed down. The five percent figure is nonetheless telling, noting a significant perceived danger. "It’s an important signal that most AI researchers don’t find it strongly imp

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• Zak Watts