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My bets on open models, mid-2026 - by Nathan Lambert

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What I expect to come next and why, focused on the open-closed gap.

My bets on open models, mid-2026 What I expect to come next and why, focused on the open-closed gap. Nathan Lambert Apr 15, 2026 119 30 11 Share Article voiceover 0:00 -6:56 Audio playback is not supported on your browser. Please upgrade. We’re living through the period of time when we’ll learn if open models can keep up with closed labs. The obvious answer is that no, they won’t. This answer is a form of saying they won’t keep up in every area . This framing closes off a popular prediction where the open models completely catch up , as in all models saturate and open and closed models only be

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