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There is no IQ for AI — AI Alignment Forum

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Most disagreement about AI Safety strategy and regulation stems from our inability to forecast how dangerous future systems will be. This inability means that even the best minds are operating on a vibe when discussing AI, AGI, SuperIntelligence, Godlike-AI and similar endgame scenarios. The trouble is that vibes are hard to operationalize and pin down. We don’t have good processes for systematically debating vibes. Here, I’ll do my best and try to dissect one such vibe: the implicit belief in the existence of predictable intelligence thresholds that AI will reach. This implicit belief is at the core of many disagreements, so much so that it leads to massively conflicting views in the wild. For example: Yoshua Bengio writes an FAQ about Catastrophic Risks from Superhuman AI and Geoffrey Hinton left Google to warn about these risks. Meanwhile, the other Godfather of AI, Yann Lecunn, states that those concerns are overblown because we are “nowhere near Cat-level and Dog-level AI”. This i

x There is no IQ for AI — AI Alignment Forum AI Frontpage 7 There is no IQ for AI by Gabriel Alfour 27th Nov 2023 Linkpost for cognition.cafe 11 min read 10 7 Most disagreement about AI Safety strategy and regulation stems from our inability to forecast how dangerous future systems will be. This inability means that even the best minds are operating on a vibe when discussing AI, AGI, SuperIntelligence, Godlike-AI and similar endgame scenarios. The trouble is that vibes are hard to operationalize and pin down. We don’t have good processes for systematically debating vibes. Here, I’ll do my best

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