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George Soros | Fallibility, Reflexivity, and the Human Uncertainty Principle

georgesoros.com · 11,370 words · saved by 1 readers

The Journal of Economic Methodology, the leading peer-reviewed journal on the philosophical foundations and methodological practice of economics, has published a special issue devoted to George Soros’s theory of reflexivity. The issue contains a new article by Mr. Soros articulating his most recent thinking on reflexivity and fallibility, the role of those concepts in social science, and their contribution to events such as the 2008 financial crisis and euro crisis. The issue also contains contributions, responses and critiques from 18 leading scholars in economics and the history and philosophy of science.

Introduction I am honored that the editors of the Journal of Economic Methodology have created this special issue on the subject of reflexivity and have invited me, as well as a distinguished group of scholars, to contribute. Of course I did not discover reflexivity. Earlier observers recognized it, or at least aspects of it, often under a different name. Knight (1921) explored the difference between risk and uncertainty. Keynes (1936, Chapter 12) compared financial markets to a beauty contest where the participants had to guess who would be the most popular choice. The sociologist Merton (194

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