The 2025 IPOs are 4 years late - by Andrew M. Dresner

This post compares the three payments Fintech IPOs of 2025 to the five IPOs of 2021, the only prior cohort 2021: Chime, Circle, Klarna 2025: Affirm, Flywire, Marqeta, Toast, & Remitly The filing gap between the two groups was caused by the Fintech market crash of late 2021/early 2022 where most Fintech valuations declined by ~80% Today, the main difference between the class of 2021 and the class of 2025 is profitability Both groups grew at roughly the same rate in 2025, with Circle outgrowing everyone The class of 21 are mostly profitable, with only Marqeta falling a bit short The class of 25 show big losses, largely driven by adjustments for share-based compensation and IPO expenses In their first year all the class of 21 companies also showed losses, but generally showed much higher revenue growth Most growth rates exceeded Circle’s today Revenue growth gradually decline to today’s 20-35% range For companies where Rule of 40 is meaningful, they are all close to or over that 40% hurdl

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• Eli Qian