Bullish, With Eyes Wide Open - Duality Research

2025 is officially in the books — and it wasn’t just a good year for returns, it was a pretty eventful one too. We weren’t bullish just for the sake of it. The data supported that view, and we hope our research helped you stay ahead of the market and lock in some solid returns. As we roll into the new year, our view hasn’t changed much. The US economy is heading into 2026 with resilient growth, broader profit drivers, and a policy backdrop that remains supportive for risk assets. That includes meaningful easing, pro-cyclical deficits, and an administration that’s paying close attention to markets. On top of that, inflation remains well behaved. We expect CPI to drift lower this year as the main inflation drivers — wages, housing, and energy — aren’t pointing higher. Put it all together and you’ve got a setup where the Fed can cut, but doesn’t need to, while real yields stay steady. In other words, it’s a fairly Goldilocks setup. At the same time, let’s not get too comfortable — anythin

saved by

• Eli Qian