What underlies underlying inflation?

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: In a few days, we’re going to get a couple of important inflation reports, and they might bring some clarity to the debate over whether we can have a soft landing — that is, getting inflation down without a recession. Of course, if you have been following this discussion, you have indeed heard this before. Clarity in the inflation discussion has been very hard to come by, even if you ignore the people filling my inbox with declarations that the dollar is doomed and that hyperinflation is just around the corner. I’ve compared debates among economists over each new trove of inflation data to ancient Roman priests seeking auguries in the entrails of sacrificed animals, a remark that, oddly, doesn’t seem to have won me many friends among my colleagues. It’s also disturbing that many economists always seem to come down on the same side of these debates: Optimists are always optimistic, pessimists always pessimistic. I’ve surely been guilty of the same th

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: In a few days, we’re going to get a couple of important inflation reports, and they might bring some clarity to the debate over whether we can have a soft landing — that is, getting inflation down without a recession. Of course, if you have been following this discussion, you have indeed heard this before. Clarity in the inflation discussion has been very hard to come by, even if you ignore the people filling my inbox with declarations that the dollar is doomed and that hyperinflation is just around the corner. I’ve compared debates among economists over ea