Argentina’s presidential election delivers a surprise result

T here are two certainties in Argentine politics. One is that polls cannot be trusted. The other is that predictions of the demise of Peronism, the populist movement that has dominated politics for seven decades, always prove premature. In the first round of Argentina’s presidential election on October 22nd, both truths were borne out. Most polls had put Javier Milei, a libertarian outsider who won the presidential primaries in August, as the front-runner. Yet Mr Milei received 30% of votes, the same share as in the primaries. Sergio Massa (pictured), a Peronist candidate who is Argentina’s economy minister, won almost 37% of votes—up from 21% in the primaries. The two candidates will now compete in a run-off on November 19th. Patricia Bullrich of Together for Change, a centre-right coalition, who got 24% of votes is out of the race. Mr Massa’s turnaround is astounding. Since he took up his current job in August 2022 annual inflation in Argentina has increased from 79% to 138%. The pri

T here are two certainties in Argentine politics. One is that polls cannot be trusted. The other is that predictions of the demise of Peronism, the populist movement that has dominated politics for seven decades, always prove premature. In the first round of Argentina’s presidential election on October 22nd, both truths were borne out. Most polls had put Javier Milei, a libertarian outsider who won the presidential primaries in August, as the front-runner. Yet Mr Milei received 30% of votes, the same share as in the primaries. Sergio Massa (pictured), a Peronist candidate who is Argentina’s ec