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What Are the Odds H5N1 Is Worse Than COVID-19? - Institute for Progress

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Though COVID-19 is often referred to as a “once-in-a-century event,” this expression should not be taken literally. Another COVID-like pandemic at some point is almost inevitable, and the chances of a devastating pandemic materializing in any given year are low but constant. Recently, media figures have raised concerns that the highly pathogenic avian influenza virus A (H5N1) may have the potential to cause a pandemic. These concerns largely stem from probable transmission between minks late last year, which would constitute the first observed mammal-to-mammal transmission of H5N1. An opinion piece by Zeynep Tufekci appropriately raises the alarm about H5N1 as a potential pandemic threat. Her piece may imply a higher probability of an H5N1 pandemic than is actually the case. But even with conservative assumptions, our forecasts indicate a roughly 4% chance of an H5N1 pandemic as bad as or worse than COVID-19 over the next year. If outbreaks in avian populations and spillover events ret

Content Executive summary Background Key uncertainties about H5N1 Forecasting H5N1’s spread What can we do about H5N1? Executive summary The chance of H5N1 or one of its descendants causing a pandemic is slim, but the impact would probably be more severe than COVID-19 A reasonable forecast that H5N1 causes a pandemic as bad as or worse than COVID-19 beginning in the next year is ~4%, which means the expected cost in terms of potential harms to the U.S. is at least $640 billion The federal government can reduce that risk by: Scaling up testing & sequencing Banning mink farms Not pursuing

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