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Should the US Sell Blackwell Chips to China? | IFP

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The United States is reportedly considering whether to permit sales of NVIDIA’s forthcoming B30A chip to China, following lobbying efforts from NVIDIA.1 The B30A’s reported specifications suggest it will enable roughly equivalent capabilities as NVIDIA’s flagship B300 by delivering half the B300’s performance at half the price.2 If meaningful volumes of chips with these specifications are permitted to be exported to China, it would have four major implications: A key argument for allowing exports of the B30A is that sales would satisfy Chinese demand for AI compute that Huawei and other Chinese chip companies would otherwise fill. By cutting off their market, B30A sales could slow China’s indigenization efforts and its ability to compete with the US chip industry in global markets. However, this argument is flawed, for both supply and demand-side reasons: Restricting the export of powerful AI chips to China, such as the B30A, is the best way to maximize the United States’ AI compute ad

Download PDF Content Executive summary Introduction The B30A has similar price-performance to the B300 China cannot produce domestic chips that match the B30A China cannot manufacture AI chips at scale Selling B30As to China would undermine the Trump administration’s policy goals Banned AI chip exports to China Conservative B30A exports Baseline B30A exports Aggressive B30A and other US AI chip exports Tighter controls on SME and HBM can prevent China from making advanced AI chips Appendix 1: Estimate of 2025 and 2026 US Production of AI chips Appendix 2: B30A cluster analysis Appendix 3: Full

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