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Timing Technology: Lessons From The Media Lab · Gwern.net

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Technological developments can be foreseen but the knowledge is largely useless because startups are inherently risky and require optimal timing. A more practical approach is to embrace uncertainty, taking a reinforcement learning perspective.

--- title: "Timing Technology: Lessons From The Media Lab" description: "Technological developments can be foreseen but the knowledge is largely useless because startups are inherently risky and require optimal timing. A more practical approach is to embrace uncertainty, taking a reinforcement learning perspective." created: 2012-07-12 modified: 2019-06-20 status: finished confidence: likely importance: 6 css-extension: dropcaps-de-zs ... > How do you time your startup? Technological forecasts are often surprisingly prescient in terms of predicting that something was possible & desirable and w

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