What are the odds of Trump? - by Alexander Campbell

I don’t have a dog in this fight, not really. We’ll get to politics in another ramble soon, don’t worry. Today’s ramble is going to be laser focused on how you, as an investor, business owner, or human, might observe what prediction markets are saying about these outcomes. Up to and including how to source and test strategies related to the changes in the odds of various candidates. TL;DR: How can you track the presidential odds and apply that to trading markets? If you ask the best investors in the world whether they bet on politics, they will usually give you some version of this refrain: We’re not political experts, we’re experts on markets. We try to focus on good opportunities in markets, and be agnostic to political outcomes. You will hear this even from the type of investors for whom this is most obviously not true: global macro. Why? Well, when you invest in Apple or Microsoft, your investment may be impacted by the outcomes of political machines, but not in any predictable way

I don’t have a dog in this fight, not really. We’ll get to politics in another ramble soon, don’t worry. Today’s ramble is going to be laser focused on how you, as an investor, business owner, or human, might observe what prediction markets are saying about these outcomes. Up to and including how to source and test strategies related to the changes in the odds of various candidates. TL;DR: How can you track the presidential odds and apply that to trading markets? If you ask the best investors in the world whether they bet on politics, they will usually give you some version of this refrain: We