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Part 1: My Life Is a Lie - by Michael W. Green

yesigiveafig.com · 4,016 words · saved by 1 readers

We’re going to largely skip markets again, because the sweater is rapidly unraveling in other areas as I pull on threads. Suffice it to say that the market is LARGELY unfolding as I had expected — credit stress is rising, particularly in the tech sector. Many are now pointing to the rising CDS for Oracle as the deterioration in “AI” balance sheets accelerates. CDS was also JUST introduced for META — it traded at 56, slightly worse than the aggregate IG CDS at 54.5 (itself up from 46 since I began discussing this topic): Correlations are spiking as MOST stocks move in the same direction each day even as megacap tech continues to define the market aggregates: Market pricing of correlation is beginning to pick up… remember this is the “real” fear index and the moving averages are trending upwards: And, as I predicted, inflation concerns, notably absent from any market-based indication, are again freezing the Fed. The pilots are frozen, understanding that they are in Zugzwang — every choic

Part 1: My Life Is a Lie How a Broken Benchmark Quietly Broke America Michael W. Green Nov 23, 2025 ∙ Paid 4,362 176 963 Share We’re going to largely skip markets again, because the sweater is rapidly unraveling in other areas as I pull on threads. Suffice it to say that the market is LARGELY unfolding as I had expected — credit stress is rising, particularly in the tech sector. Many are now pointing to the rising CDS for Oracle as the deterioration in “AI” balance sheets accelerates. CDS was also JUST introduced for META — it traded at 56, slightly worse than the aggregate IG CDS at 54.5 (its

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