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Poker Pros, Crypto Kings, and Tech Titans: Nate Silver’s Guide to “The River” | Vanity Fair

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I’m sure that many of you will know me for my analysis of American elections. But here’s something you might not know: In covering politics, I’ve always felt like a fish out of water. I played poker professionally before I ever wrote a word about politics or built an election model. I still feel more at home in a casino than at a political convention. I have the numbers of dozens of top poker players in my contacts list—but few people who work in politics or government. In fact, even my decision to start FiveThirtyEight, which I founded in 2008 and worked for until 2023, was an unexpected consequence of a law passed by Congress that ended my 3-year tenure as a professional poker player. I’ve spent most of the past three years immersed in a world that I call The River. The River is a sprawling ecosystem of like-minded people that includes everyone from low-stakes poker pros just trying to grind out a living to crypto kings and venture-capital billionaires. It is a way of thinking and a

Save this story Save this story I’m sure that many of you will know me for my analysis of American elections. But here’s something you might not know: In covering politics, I’ve always felt like a fish out of water. I played poker professionally before I ever wrote a word about politics or built an election model. I still feel more at home in a casino than at a political convention. I have the numbers of dozens of top poker players in my contacts list—but few people who work in politics or government. In fact, even my decision to start FiveThirtyEight, which I founded in 2008 and worked for un

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